Current State of MMOs
The landscape of massively multiplayer online (MMO) games has certainly evolved over the years. While it would be inaccurate to declare the genre as dead, its prominence has waned compared to its golden era. There are still some enduring classics that continue to captivate players, albeit with a somewhat diminished presence. However, the industry has not turned its back on the genre entirely, with promising upcoming MMOs like Palia and Pax Dei on the horizon, signaling a potential resurgence or transformation of the MMO space.
Reflecting on the past, the early 2010s were a period of significant growth for MMOs, with a surge of new titles entering the market. Games such as Final Fantasy 14: A Realm Reborn, Neverwinter, Guild Wars 2, and The Elder Scrolls Online were among the many that debuted during this time, creating a vibrant and competitive landscape. This period was marked by the frequent use of the term “WoW killer,” as many games sought to dethrone the reigning champion of the genre, World of Warcraft. Despite the influx of contenders, the next true “WoW Killer” turned out to be World of Warcraft itself, with its ability to reinvent and maintain a strong player base over time.
While the genre isn’t as dominant as it once was, the continued interest and development of MMOs like Palia and Pax Dei suggest that there’s still a place for these expansive, community-driven experiences in the gaming world.
(Image credit: Epic)
Before Live Service
Before the advent of live service games, MMORPGs were undergoing a significant transformation. The traditional monthly subscription model began to give way to microtransactions and freemium models. This shift was not just a trend but a financial strategy that proved to be lucrative for many game developers and publishers.
As MMORPGs matured, they often transitioned to a freemium model, offering the core game for free while charging for extras like XP boosts, cosmetic items, and sometimes even powerful in-game advantages. This model allowed games to attract a wider audience and generate substantial revenue from a dedicated player base willing to pay for enhancements to their gaming experience.
One of the most notable examples of financial success in this era was Activision Blizzard, which reported a staggering $5.1 billion in revenue from in-game purchases in 2021. This figure included not only microtransactions but also monthly subscriptions and sales from other games under their umbrella.
Several MMORPGs that made the transition to a freemium model include Star Wars: The Old Republic, which found new life and profitability by adopting this approach, and others like WildStar, which unfortunately did not survive despite the change. The allure of cosmetic microtransactions turned out to be a gold mine for those who managed to capitalize on it effectively.
(Image credit: Bioware)
The Live Service Love Affair
The term ‘live service’ refers more to a business model than a specific genre, and its strength lies in its adaptability. A live service game can take many forms, from an open-world RPG to a first-person shooter or even a battle royale. This model allows developers to create games that fit their budget and resources rather than the massive undertaking that is an MMORPG.
Initially, many live service games relied on loot boxes to generate revenue, but this practice has faced backlash and legal challenges. As a result, the industry has seen a shift towards the battle pass system, which encourages both playtime and spending without relying on random chance.
Below is a comparison of the traditional MMORPG model and the live service model:
| Traditional MMORPG Model | Live Service Model |
|---|---|
| Monthly subscriptions or one-time purchase | Free-to-play with optional purchases |
| Content updates tied to expansions | Continuous updates and seasonal content |
| Revenue from game sales and subscriptions | Revenue from microtransactions and battle passes |
The live service model has proven to be financially advantageous over the traditional MMORPG structure, offering a more flexible and potentially more profitable approach. However, this shift has also led to a saturation of the market, with countless games vying for players’ time and money.
(Image credit: Epic Games)
Look upon my battle pass and despair
The live service model, while initially seen as a lucrative and flexible business strategy, is beginning to encounter challenges reminiscent of those faced by MMORPGs. The market is becoming increasingly saturated, with numerous live service games launching and competing for a finite player base. This saturation has led to a number of high-profile failures, where games have struggled to retain players and generate expected revenue.
Despite the challenges, some live service games have managed to achieve significant success and maintain a strong player base. However, as the market grows more crowded, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for new entrants to carve out a niche. This has led to speculation that the popularity of live service games may be waning, much like the MMORPGs before them.
As an example of the live service model’s challenges, consider the reception to Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League. The game’s preview, which featured typical live service elements, was met with skepticism from fans. In response to the feedback, the developers have announced plans to add an offline mode post-launch, a move that suggests a shift in strategy to ensure the game’s longevity.
The industry may be reaching a point where the allure of live service games is no longer enough to guarantee success. As players become more discerning and the novelty of battle passes fades, developers may need to reconsider their approach to game design and monetization.
The live service model is facing the same challenges as MMORPGs did years ago. Player saturation and battle-pass fatigue are real issues.
— Game Analyst @GamingInsights.levelmastertutorials.com (@GamingInsights)
April 1, 2024
(Image credit: Blizzard)
Reflecting on the MMORPG Genre’s Future
The MMORPG genre holds a special place in the hearts of many gamers, including myself. The allure of a vast, open world ripe for exploration and the camaraderie that comes with playing alongside others are experiences that many of us cherish. Yet, the harsh reality is that the financial viability of creating new MMORPGs is increasingly in question. The preference for live service models, with their lower barriers to entry and potential for high returns, has made the costly and complex development of MMORPGs less attractive to studios.
It’s a poignant reality that the genre’s future is uncertain, not because of a lack of interest or passion, but due to the economic imperatives that drive the industry. The success of games like World of Warcraft and Final Fantasy 14 demonstrates that there is still a significant audience for MMORPGs. However, the question remains whether the industry will see the value in investing in such ambitious projects when more financially secure models exist.
As we look to the future, it’s possible that the MMORPG genre will need to evolve in new ways to survive. Perhaps it will take the form of hybrid models that blend the best aspects of MMORPGs with the financial strategies of live service games. Whatever the outcome, the hope is that the spirit of MMORPGs—the sense of adventure, community, and shared storytelling—will continue to find a place in the gaming landscape.
